Climate Deal 2015

Summary of Proposal by the Climate Observatory on Brazil’s Contribution to the Climate Talks

The world’s first NCD proposal by civil society organizations calls for an upper limit of 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide in Brazil by 2030, aims at carbon neutrality by 2050, and explains how to get there from here. Below is a summary of said proposal.

Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution

  • Brazil commits to reduce its total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from January 1, 2021, to an upper limit of 1 Gt CO2e in 2030.
  • This commitment represents a reduction of 35% from emission levels in 2010, the first year of implementation of Brazil’s National Climate Change Policy.
  • The 10-year period of 2021 to 2030 is divided into two 5-year commitment periods with total emissions of 7,625 Gt MtCO2e for the period Jan 1, 2021 to Dec 31, 2025, and 5,875 MtCO2e for the period Jan 1, 2026 to Dec 31, 2030.
  • From 2020, Brazil will ensure its per capita CO2e emissions remain below the global per capita average.
  • Brazil further commits to put in place a set of climate change adaptation policies, measures and actions in order to reduce the vulnerability of its population, environment and economy to the effectives of climatic alterations, including establishing a National Climate Change Adaptation Plan with targets and actions to reduce impacts on the most vulnerable populations and eco-systems, and incorporate into the country’s development plans the latest scientific knowledge about vulnerabilities of the country, its regions and economic sectors, and how to reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience to climate change in Brazil.
  • Brazil will ensure that by 2020 all its Pluriannual Plans and annual federal budgets include clearly identified financing for actions necessary to meet the targets set out in its Nationally Determined Contribution, through implementation of the necessary policies, measures and actions for mitigation and adaptation to climate change, in cooperation with States and municipalities.

Nature of Mitigation target proposed

Economy-wide absolute target with reductions from a 2010 baseline of 1,545 GtCO2e (not including removals by forests in protected areas and indigenous lands).

Details of emission reduction level proposed and emissions trajectory

  • Emission reduction level: 35% by 2030 in relation to 2010 emission levels, which are set to be published in the Third Inventory of Emissions and Removals of GHGs in the second half of 2015.
  • Trajectory and budget for Brazilian emissions for the periods of 2021 to 2025 and 2026 to 2030, based on a projection of Brazilian emissions in 2020 of 1.7 GtCO2e based on:
  • Emissions from land use change achieving the emissions reduction target through reducing deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado regions.
  • Projection of emissions trends for the remaining sectors (energy, agriculture, waste and industrial processes) from 2010, based on extending trends observed for each sector in the period of 2010-2013 out to 2020.
  • Straight line reductions from the projected 2020 level to the 2030 target, with average annual emissions reductions over the period of 70 MtCO2e.

Proposed scope and metrics

  • Emissions and gases included: 100% of emissions of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol included in the Brazilian inventory, including all anthropogenic carbon removals from the atmosphere, except those in managed forests (protected areas and indigenous lands).
  • Global Warming Potential of 100-year time scale, using values from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, or any updates of those values recommended by the IPCC.

Proposed Long Term Goal

  • Brazil proposes that parties to the UNFCCC adopt a long-term goal of being carbon neutral in terms of global emissions by 2050, in order to increase the chances of meeting the ultimate objective of the Convention, as set out in its Article 2.
  • This goal is necessary to limit warming to below 2ºC in relation to pre-industrial revolution and to maintain the possibility of stabilizing global temperature below 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels.
  • In the context of the above global commitment, Brazil commits to achieve carbon neutrality of its own emissions by 2050.

Planning processes and means of implementation

  • The actions required to meet the commitments contained in this NDC will be carried out with resources from public and private sources available in Brazil, and will not depend on additional sources of climate finance mobilized specifically to achieve climate goals.
  • In a scenario where new and additional resources are made available, Brazil could go beyond the targets set out in this NDC.
  • Meeting to targets contained in this NDC will not include CERs or other credits transferred through international market mechanisms under the UNFCCC

Equity and ambition considerations

Different methods for equitably allocating mitigation reduction efforts needed to stay below 2 or 1.5 degrees of temperature increase, based on quantitative indicators of capacity, historical emissions and development levels, all indicate that in 2030 Brazil’s emissions should not exceed the limit of 1GtCO2e.

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